PUMA in WA will unite together!

PUMA stands for "People United Means Action!" You may know that there is another, more defiant meaning for the acronym P.U.M.A. There will be no unity in the Democratic party until the voices of the 18 million voters who support Hillary Clinton are heard and heeded.

We are motivated to action by our shared belief that the current leadership of the Democratic National Committee has abrogated its responsibility to represent the interests of all democrats in all 50 states. They are misleading our party and aim to mislead our country into nominating an illegitimate candidate for president in 2008. Our goals are fourfold:


1. To support the candidacy of Hillary Clinton in 2008 / 2012.

2. To lobby and organize for changes in leadership in the DNC

3. To critique and oppose the misogyny, discrimination, and disinformation in the mainstream media, including mainstream blogs and other outlets of new media

4. To support the efforts of those political figures who have allied themselves with Hillary Clinton and who have demonstrated commitment to our first three goals

DAILY Rasmussen Poll:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 49% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Obama's Democratic Party - by Dana Goldstein & Ezra Klein, American Prospect


Barack Obama might be running on a post-partisan platform, but he is more focused on building the Democratic Party than any other candidate in recent history.

An unassuming building at 430 South Capitol Street, in a forlorn corner between the Capitol and a highway overpass, is the home address of the Democratic Party. But though mail still gets delivered to the Washington, D.C., address, many of the Democratic National Committee's employees--the men and women who make up the party's central infrastructure--are no longer around to receive it. They are in Chicago, where Barack Obama moved them after he captured the Democratic Party's nomination. More...

It was a peculiar decision for Obama, who had built his campaign, and even his political identity, around an eloquently stated, post-partisan revulsion with the divisiveness of modern party politics. Following the strategy of "outsider" candidates before him, Obama set his headquarters outside the District in order to create distance, both physical and perceptual, between himself and the consultants, interest groups, party hacks, and congressional busybodies who populate the nation's capital.

The effort was so successful that some feared the Obama phenomenon--the millions of young people passionate about his campaign, the thousands who have lined roadsides just to wave at the Illinois senator's motorcade--had become a force unto itself, indifferent to the fortunes of the traditional Democratic Party, unbound by a commitment to progressive ideology, and wholly dependent on the character of Barack Obama. As blogger Matt Stoller writes on OpenLeft.com, "Power and money in the Democratic Party is being centralized around a key iconic figure. [Obama] is consolidating power within the party."

This was a new critique of Obama: not that he was beyond parties but that he had personalized them. That rather than building the Democratic Party, he was building an Obama Party, with all the good and bad that that centralization entailed. Though some were nervous when Obama sent the moving trucks to South Capitol Street, further tightening his hold over the party apparatus, the relocation neatly fit the broader, and rather unexpected, reality of this campaign: For all the talk of post-partisan "unity," Barack Obama has been proving himself the most party-focused presidential candidate in recent history--possibly ever. Paradoxically, although Obama's success has been more dependent on personal charisma than any recent nominee's has, he's been leveraging that charisma to build a broader Democratic infrastructure less dependent on the presidential nominee.

This should be no surprise. Though Obama himself is a newcomer to Washington, the upper echelons of his Senate and campaign staff are populated almost exclusively by experienced Democratic Party operatives. Continuity with the established party infrastructure is a defining characteristic of the Obama campaign. When Hillary Clinton conceded the nomination, Obama's first major staff change was not the incorporation of a former Clinton operative meant to heal the divisions of the primary, nor the elevation of a national-security graybeard meant to reassure general-election voters of Obama's commander-in-chief credentials. Rather, it was to install Paul Tewes, the skilled organizer who served as the architect of Obama's crucial victory in Iowa, at the DNC to head up the committee's election-year efforts. A few weeks later, it was announced that the DNC would cease accepting contributions from lobbyists or political action committees.

Then it came out that much of the DNC was moving to Chicago. In the months that have followed, the Obama campaign has announced plans for training camps that will turn out thousands of new organizers dedicated to electing Democrats, and has signaled that it will spend millions in blood-red states where Democrats haven't seriously invested in building party infrastructure for decades. The campaign has constructed a fundraising machine based around small-donors that promises to end the age-old competition for dollars between different wings of the Democratic establishment, enabling the creation of a unified electoral strategy. It has argued that "real change" requires the sort of legislative successes that only a strong congressional party can produce. In short, the candidate running on his exhaustion with traditional party politics has directed his campaign to build a new kind of Democratic Party--one that may put to shame anything that came before it.

***

The aftermath of the 2002 elections was a low point for the Democratic Party. Much of the blame fell on the shoulders of Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt, the Senate and House party leaders judged responsible not just for the political failure of losing seats in the midterm election but for graver substantive deficiencies: Gephardt was complicit, some would say crucial, in George W. Bush's disastrous invasion of Iraq. Daschle was, at best, ineffectual against it. Both paid for those failings. In 2004, distracted by events in Washington, Daschle lost to Republican John Thune, and Gephardt retired after losing the Democratic presidential primary to John Kerry. Their staffs paid, too; come January of 2005, the experienced legislative tacticians and political operatives who had served the party's congressional leadership found themselves abruptly unemployed.

The bright spot of the 2004 election was the emergence of a brilliant, charismatic, young African American politician named Barack Obama. Obama burst onto the scene with a keynote speech at the Democratic Convention that would probably be remembered as little more than a neat piece of oratory if Kerry hadn't lost and congressional Democrats hadn't been wiped out. But, in a dark moment for Democrats, Obama was one of the very few points of light. Which is probably how he got a meeting with Pete Rouse in the first place.

Often called "the 101st Senator," Rouse, an understated 62-year-old with 30-odd years of Capitol Hill experience, had been Tom Daschle's powerful chief of staff. When Daschle was ejected from the Senate, he hoped Rouse would continue to work with him in the private sector. But Rouse received an expected call from Cassandra Butts, the policy director on Dick Gephardt's 2004 presidential campaign and an old law school chum of Obama's. Butts asked Rouse to meet with the newly elected Obama. Grudgingly, Rouse had lunch with the young senator. Obama asked him to sign on as chief of staff--a demotion of sorts, dropping Rouse from the office of the most powerful Senate Democrat to that of the most junior member of the body. Rouse politely declined. Obama kept asking. Eventually, Rouse accepted.

Most outsider candidates for the presidency recruit an outsider team to deliver it. Bill Clinton's main strategists in 1992 were the little-known Paul Begala and James Carville. His first chief of staff was Mack McLarty, a childhood friend who had risen to become chairman of the Arkansas Democratic Party. It was a team untainted by Washington but also unschooled in how Washington worked.

The Obama campaign and Senate staff, by contrast, are full of Daschle and Gephardt veterans--an unexpected rebirth of the power bases and reputations of two politicians who had long been written off. Obama's chief of staff is the aforementioned Daschle associate, Pete Rouse. His deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, managed Daschle's 2004 campaign. His director for battleground states, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, and his director of communications, Dan Pfeiffer, were both deputy campaign managers for Daschle in 2004. Obama's foreign-policy director, Denis McDonough, was Daschle's foreign-policy adviser, and his finance director, Julianna Smoot, was head of Daschle's PAC. Many of those who didn't come from the Senate minority leader's office came from the House minority leader's office. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, was Gephardt's deputy campaign manager in 2004. His head of delegate operations, Jeff Berman, played the same role for Gephardt. His national press secretary, Bill Burton, was Gephardt's Iowa press secretary. Dozens of others come from related arms of the party, in particular the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

It's a tremendous operation for a first-term senator who hadn't worked a day in Washington before 2004. But it's exactly the team you'd expect a former chief of staff to the Senate minority leader to construct. "The person most responsible for this was Pete Rouse," says Tom Daschle, sounding almost wistful. After all, Obama's campaign was in part based on plans Rouse had drawn up for Daschle in 2004, before Daschle decided to sit out the presidential race. The Obama staff's familiarity with the workings of the party and comfort with its procedures proved crucial in the primaries. Obama won the nomination largely because his team better understood the byzantine mechanics by which the Democratic Party chooses its nominee: The campaign used proportional-apportionment rules to hold down Clinton's delegate totals in large states and pumped resources into caucus states to run up Obama's delegate numbers. The Obama campaign succeeded, in other words, through a superior respect for the party's internal infrastructure.

***

Historically, the Democratic Party has operated less as a strong party than as an uncertain coalition. It has been regionally fractured, racially divided, ideologically torn, and economically disparate, frustrating those who believed that voting for the more-left party should further a progressive policy agenda. A broad ideological range is good for constructing raw congressional majorities but tricky when you're trying to reconcile the fiscal conservatism of the Blue Dogs with the social investment favored by liberals. Rather than acting as a single institution united around a common agenda, the party was all too often a nominal nation-state in which sets of warring fiefdoms protected their properties and sought expansion.

By the early 1990s, this incoherence had left the party bereft of a single agenda and full of tired incumbents interested in little but the protection of their own power and patrons. As a result, the Democratic brand had turned toxic, a scarlet D that national candidates had to hide or publicly burn off. "I was the polling adviser for the Democratic Leadership Council back then," says pollster Stan Greenberg. "Clinton's candidacy, and that effort, was very much focused on addressing the historical problems of the Democratic Party." Those problems included a long-standing perception that the party was soft on crime, captured by an array of entrenched interest groups, fiscally profligate, and, at least in Congress, simply corrupt. Before Clinton could build a new image of the party, however, he had to get elected. That meant not strengthening the party but holding it at arm's length, except as a useful vehicle for fundraising. This was explicit in his campaign: Clinton ran as a "New Democrat," a symbolic break from the actual Democratic Party--especially its liberal wing.

That strategy had its logic, but it also had its drawbacks. "Clinton became very identified with the presidential wing of the party," says a former member of Clinton's famed campaign war room. "But there was a lot of resentment from the Daschle and Gephardt people to the way they were treated by the Clinton people. I think the people who acted in Clinton's name didn't generate an awful lot of goodwill for them." This wasn't widely understood until 2008, when Hillary Clinton ran for president only to find that the party's leadership was devoid of individuals with any connection or loyalty to her husband's administration. Of the three most powerful Democrats—Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Howard Dean—none could be considered Clintonites, and Dean's ascension was, in many ways, an explicit repudiation of the Clintons. The cool relationship between the Clintons and the leadership continued down into Congress. "Obama got more Senate endorsements than Hillary did," continues the Clinton insider. "That's incredible. The guy's been there for three fucking years!"

***

Obama's staff, however, had been there much longer. His is a political team whose understanding of power is inextricably linked with the central question it asked every day in Congress: "How many votes do we have?" Thus, Obama's campaign operation was built to amass two different types of votes: those that will win Obama the election and those that will pass his legislation if he becomes president. For Obama's advisers, years in the party's non-executive wing have bred a visceral understanding that the president is simply one part of a larger political infrastructure, and if the president is to succeed, the rest of that infrastructure must be healthy. It's an unusually sophisticated and holistic understanding of political power, and it's come to underlie Obama's campaign for the presidency.

But the will to build the party would have been little more than an airy pile of good intentions if the party's brand, coherence, and finances hadn't improved since the 1980s and 1990s.

A fairly good indicator of the health of a party is the attitudes of young voters who are being exposed to it for the first time. In the 1990s, Generation X was coming of political age, and according to polls conducted by the Pew Research group, Republicans held a 1 percent edge in party identification. In 2008, it is Generation Y that is choosing political allegiances for the first time, and these under-30-somethings show an astonishing 24 percent preference for the Democrats. Even Generation X, which gave Republicans a 3 percent edge as recently as 2004, now prefers Democrats by a margin of 12 percent. In sharp contrast to the early 1990s, it is Republicans who now have a nominee best known for his apostasies against his own party. Democrats don't have to run from their party anymore. And so Obama hasn't. Rather, he has run against polarization, against legislative gridlock, against special interests. This is why he could bring the DNC to Chicago: The problem isn't Democrats. It's the atmosphere and working relationships that impede their work in Washington.

There's also a sense that the party is more ideologically unified than it has been in the past. "There's no center-left divide in this nominating fight," says Rep. Artur Davis of Alabama. "All the candidates lined up within 20 yards of each other on virtually every question. That is an important, interesting change that shouldn't be overlooked in the Democratic Party." It is, in part, the function of being in the opposition. But it's also the product of the electoral realignment of the last 15 years, in which white Southerners moved solidly into the Republican bloc and socially liberal suburbanites finally became Democrats.

Money has also proven a powerful unifying force. Partly as a result of the party's increasing health, and partly as a result of the birth of Internet-driven small-donor democracy, the party and many of its candidates suddenly found themselves flush with funds. "Fundraising was a zero-sum game for a significant part of the Democratic Party's recent history," says Davis. During the 1990s, the Clintons had worked assiduously to build out the party's capacity for fundraising, putting legendary moneyman Terry McAuliffe in charge of the Democratic National Committee. "Clinton viewed the DNC and the party in general as a vehicle for fundraising and media," says Mike Lux, a former special assistant to Clinton. It was an outlook born of the pre-McCain-Feingold period, in which Democratic candidates were strapped for cash, while the DNC was free of many of the current legal restrictions on fundraising. That spurred candidates to treat the party as an ATM of sorts, responsible for generating as much cash as possible, from any source willing to donate.

This cycle, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has raised over $70 million. The Democratic National Committee has raised over $80 million. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has raised over $100 million. And Obama has raised almost $330 million, much of it from small donors. "When you were raising your money mostly through large donors and PACs, there was a continual sense that there was a limited amount of money that could be raised, and if you spent it now, you couldn't spend it later," Greenberg says. "Now there's a totally different view of money: the more you spend, the more you raise." That view, however, is not the work of Barack Obama. It is the work of his predecessor, Howard Dean.

***

If Barack Obama is, in some ways, the accidental beneficiary of the long-delayed strong-party opportunity, he is also succeeding because he, and the party veterans who surround him, understand the moment's promise and consciously chose a strategy capable of fulfilling it.

Their approach has amounted to picking sides in what has been an unusually bitter battle over the correct strategic direction for the party. In 2004, John Kerry ran as the nominee of an impoverished, regionally fractured Democratic Party. The Democratic National Committee was still headed by a Clinton loyalist, Terry McAuliffe. Though Howard Dean had run a revolutionary primary campaign, using the Internet to mobilize grass-roots support and attract more small donations than ever before, the party's Beltway apparatus seemed more frightened than inspired by his example. In the meantime, congressional candidates across the country were forced to compete with one another for the attention and resources of the DNC, which was working off of a small list of swing states targeted by Kerry's people and McAuliffe.

Chris Gates, chair of the Colorado Democratic Party from 2003 to 2005, remembers the resentments bred by the party's targeting plan. The Kerry campaign painted a big red bull's-eye on Colorado, in no small part due to the efforts of Gates, who understood that being "targeted" could mean the difference between map-changing victories and down-the-ballot losses. The DNC set up dozens of field offices in Colorado and flooded the state with hundreds of staff and volunteers. The Kerry campaign ran television and radio advertisements there, and although Kerry lost Colorado by about five points, Democrats picked up a Senate seat with Ken Salazar and a House seat with his brother, John Salazar--one of only two Democratic House pick-ups that year.

"We benefited from the thing people complained about, which was that Kerry was hardcore about targeting," recalls Gates. "If you were targeted, you got everything you needed, and if you weren't, you got nothing. People who weren't targeted were pretty bitter being told that if they wanted buttons they had to go to the Kerry Web site and buy them," Gates says. "As good as it was for Colorado, it wasn't a sustainable model."

Backlash took the form of Howard Dean's 2005 campaign to become DNC chair, which was calibrated to answer the frustrations of party activists in states written off by the party establishment. Dean promised a "50-State Strategy" in which the DNC would send paid organizers to every state in the nation, even to the Deep South. Not every state would receive the same resources--swing states like Ohio, Nevada, and Florida would still be the subjects of intense targeting efforts--but every state would receive something.

The theory was simple: Dean believed winning county-executive and school-board races today would mean winning congressional seats and electoral college votes in coming years. He believed the DNC was well situated to focus on the party's long-term future rather than its short-term fortunes; it just needed the courage to do so. Grass-roots Democratic activists agreed, electing Dean chair.

Dean's vision brought him into conflict with those accustomed to the party's more traditional role. In 2006, Rahm Emanuel, then-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, got into a screaming match with Dean over the 50-State Strategy. Emanuel, whose outlook was typical of former members of the Bill Clinton war room, was furious because he didn't feel Dean was raising enough to justify spending dollars in states Democrats had no chance at winning. Dean was organizing when he should have been fundraising.

Dean saw things differently. As an insurgent candidate in 2004, he had outraised the scions of the establishment with ease, riding an enthused base to a huge cash advantage. His comportment at the DNC reflected his residual trust in that base: If the party spoke to its supporters, the money would be there. Dean was proven right. The party picked up 31 House and six Senate seats in the 2006 midterm elections, and many 50-State skeptics became supporters.

Among those watching was the Obama team. Obama's field operation essentially implemented a 50-State Strategy modified for the primary season. So in part, it was no surprise that once he clinched the nomination, Obama chose to keep Dean in place as DNC chair, even as he merged the DNC into his own campaign. The two men have been remarkably in sync. "I am proud of the fact that we're the first campaign in a generation to run a 50-State Strategy," Obama told the Netroots Nation convention in Austin, Texas, in a taped statement. "Not a 50 percent-plus-one strategy, but a 50-State Strategy made possible by the volunteer activism and organizing you and others have made on the ground and support by Governor Dean's efforts at the DNC."

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign's most aggressive effort to influence the down-ticket races that Democrats traditionally ignore is playing out in solidly Republican Texas. In June, Obama sent his chief strategist, David Axelrod, to Houston to deliver an important message to Texas Democratic funders. The Obama campaign had decided, Axelrod announced to a crowd of 250 at the downtown Wortham Center, to send 15 paid staffers to the state and organize thousands of volunteers to get out the vote, an unprecedented commitment of resources to the Lone Star State from a Democratic presidential campaign. The goal isn't for Obama to win Texas' 34 electoral votes. Rather, by registering Democrats, Obama hopes to help the Texas Democratic Party regain control of its state legislature, which would allow Democrats to redistrict the state's congressional delegation for 2010, potentially winning House seats in the process. That's not simply down-ballot organizing--it's way down-ballot organizing, reaching into state legislatures to influence coming congressional reapportionments in order to create large national majorities years down the line. Obama, looking ahead to governing with as large a congressional majority as possible, is determined to take advantage of a population boom in the Houston area, which is increasingly dominated by immigrants.

At times, the campaign's down-ticket energy takes on a life of its own. Jeremy Bird, field director for Obama's record-breaking victory in South Carolina, likes to tell the story of Stephen Wukela. Wukela, an attorney in his early 30s, was an Obama neighborhood team leader in Florence, South Carolina. Energized by his work with the campaign, Wukela decided to challenge Frank Willis, the 13-year incumbent mayor of Florence. It seemed a quixotic idea, but Wukela tapped into the activist network built by Obama's organizers, ran a campaign straight out of his hero's playbook ("a Real Democrat for Real Change"), and won--by a single vote. "It shows what we were able to do," says Bird, "which is not only win, but leave something behind, so we can begin to turn South Carolina blue in the years to come."

***

Of course, Obama's party-building may not be successful in winning him the presidency, and there are still skeptics within the Democratic Party who question some of his tactics. There has been some grousing from congressional Democrats that the Obama campaign isn't coordinating with them enough and has a tendency toward insularity. The 50-State Strategy remains controversial, particularly with those Democrats who were seared by the experiences of Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004. They see it as a waste of money and staff time.

Chris Gates, the former Colorado Democratic Party chair, says that Obama has smoothed over tensions in the Democratic Party about field organizing but that fault lines still exist under the surface. "The 50-State Strategy is certainly not the unanimous strategy," he says. "If Obama were to lose, those folks would come out of the woodwork."

On the other hand, some grass-roots activists worry Obama isn't committed enough to the 50-State Strategy. Aside from sharing information from the newly centralized DNC voter list, the campaign has no uniform way of coordinating with state Democratic parties. In Iowa, the Obama team took over the state party's door-to-door operation, leading to worries that state-legislature candidates would be given short shrift by the White House–focused national campaign. In Colorado, Obama's staff is doing its own fieldwork, despite the existence of a state party–coordinated campaign in support of the entire Democratic ticket, somewhat of a duplication of resources. And in Ohio, Obama canvassers are joining the already-existing, locally coordinated ground campaign, going door to door to identify undecided voters for both congressional races and the presidential.

There is even some eye-raising at Obama's ties to the congressional Old Guard. After all, the candidate promising to change the culture of Washington hasn't surrounded himself with 20-somethings forged in the crucible of the Netroots, but rather with veterans of the party's impotent era. Independence from Congress can be just as important as the ability to work within its internecine power structures, says Rep. George Miller, a 33-year House veteran who serves as chairman of the crucial Education and Labor Committee. "There are a lot of people in this Congress who are heavily invested in the status quo," Miller says. "Obama has got to guide Congress to get the results that he wants. It's a tough relationship."

What Obama wants is, in some ways, the key question. If Bill Clinton's project for the Democratic Party was mostly ideological, Obama's is mostly organizational. Clinton sought to change the party's ideas; Obama is more interested in building its infrastructure. But for what? Obama's health-care plan was the least ambitious of the three major candidates, and his recent gestures toward the center on government wiretapping, choice, and gun control have some of his supporters concerned. At times, Obama can seem so focused on building that it's unclear if he's really thought through the blueprints.

Obama's supporters have invested so much in their candidate that betrayal, or even insufficient fulfillment, could be devastating. It's bad enough to be disappointed by a candidate you don't believe in. Being let down by the one who inspires you is a much more demoralizing experience. "The issue," says Joe Trippi, who ran both Dean's and John Edwards' presidential campaigns, "is not what happens if Obama loses or if he wins and continues to build, but if he gets there and leaves out his grass roots." winning elections, counting votes. There's little new about that. Obama's theory of change is simultaneously less inspiring and far more pragmatic than he's given credit for. It relies less on a new vision of politics than on an uncommon mastery of old procedures, institutions, and organizing tactics.

"We're building lasting infrastructure which will not only help us win in November but build the progressive movement for years to come," Obama says. "Our 50-State Strategy isn't just about winning the presidential election but lifting Democrats up and down the ticket. We have a historic opportunity to elect more Democrats at every level, from city councils to state legislatures to the United States Congress, and that's how we're going to bring about a working Democratic majority, and that's how we're going to see real change in America." It is a vision of political power that requires more than a strong president: It requires a strong party. The strategy is not necessarily in opposition to Obama's top-level message of bringing the country together and healing partisan divisions, but it mostly seeks to do so through the machinery of the Democratic Party, by building party organizations in counties where voters haven't had a respectful conversation with a Democrat in decades, and electing the sort of governing majorities that can end the legislative gridlock that so enrages the polity. The theory is that Democratic successes--or at least Obama successes--will ease divisions because voters will be glad to see something finally getting done.

A focus on legislative achievement as an answer to polarization was always, to some degree, implicit in Obama's rhetoric. He described divisiveness as the result of ineffectual politics and unity as the reward for effective policy-making. "I think the American people are hungry for something different and can be mobilized around big changes, not incremental changes, not small changes," said Obama last January. "I think that there are a whole host of Republicans, and certainly independents, who have lost trust in their government, who don't believe anybody is listening to them, who are staggering under rising costs of health care, college education, [who] don't believe what politicians say. And we can draw those independents and some Republicans into a working coalition, a working majority for change."

At the time, observers focused on Obama's promised outreach to independents and Republicans. His rhetoric has often signaled an appetite for compromise that has left some wondering about what, exactly, Obama's core policy commitments would be in office. But less attention was given to what Obama seemed to think would attract folks from across the aisle: real policy-making, which Obama's campaign believes requires a Democratic Party infrastructure strong enough to pass the president's priorities. In other words, strong parties aren't the problem; they're the solution. And now that he has one of his own, Obama is determined to prove it.

Obama Tilt Toward Rubinomics Stirs Warning From Organized Labor

By Kristin Jensen and Matthew Benjamin

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard Trumka delivers a slap at former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in a slide show exhorting union members to back Democrat Barack Obama for president.

Blaming unfettered global trade and inadequate government regulation for lost manufacturing jobs and a staggering economy, Trumka's presentation cautions that ``it will do us little good if, when the next Democrat moves into the White House, Wall Street takes command of our country's economic policy.''

More...

Trumka leaves no doubt that the rebuke is aimed at Rubin, Wall Street's most prominent Democrat. It's ``hard to tell the difference'' between Rubin and Republican Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the presentation says. Trumka's critique reflects the concern among organized-labor officials that Rubin and like- minded Democrats may win the behind-the-scenes battle to shape Obama's economic thinking.

``I'm hearing Rubin's name more and more associated with the campaign's economic policy,'' says James Torrey, a top Obama fundraiser and chief executive officer of New York-based Torrey Associates LLC, a hedge-fund investor.

Rubin, who became chairman of Citigroup Inc.'s executive committee after leaving President Bill Clinton's Cabinet, represents policy priorities that would favor free trade and more emphasis on deficit-cutting budget discipline if Obama beats Republican John McCain on Nov. 4. Meanwhile, Trumka and his boss, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney, are pushing trade policies that would protect U.S. industries, universal health care, and spending on highway construction and other projects that would create union jobs.

Growth and Fairness

Rubin, in an interview, says Obama isn't favoring either faction's agenda. ``Very much as President Clinton did, he's focusing on both competitiveness and growth on the one hand, and distribution and fairness on the other,'' he says. ``It seems to me that's where he ought to be.''

Still, the Wall Street contingent's clout has grown within the Obama camp in the two months since Rubin's first-choice candidate, New York Senator Hillary Clinton, conceded the nomination.

A Rubin protege, Jason Furman, is now the economic-policy director of Obama's campaign.

Valerie Jarrett, one of Obama's closest friends and confidantes, attended a meeting hosted by Rubin, 69, several weeks ago and says they've talked by telephone several times.

Outnumbered at Forum

At an economic forum last month, Sweeney, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, and union advocates were outnumbered by the likes of Lawrence Summers, Rubin's successor as Treasury secretary; JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon; former Republican Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill; and former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson, like O'Neill an appointee of President George W. Bush.

``Senator Obama made it clear that he would be reaching out to members of that group in the future,'' says another participant, Laura Tyson, who worked with Rubin as the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Labor's apprehensions surfaced after the June 9 appointment of Furman, a Brookings Institution scholar and former Clinton White House aide. One reason: In 2005, Furman published a paper saying Wal-Mart Stores Inc. creates productivity gains and consumer savings that outweigh the low wages it pays workers.

`Very Strong Ideas'

Furman, who turns 38 today, disputes the notion that any faction holds sway. ``Barack Obama is somebody who has very strong ideas about economics,'' he says. ``And no one, not Bob Rubin, not Bob Reich, not Rich Trumka, is going to walk into a room and change his fundamental, underlying priorities.''

Even so, some union leaders are already girding to fight for influence in any future Obama administration. If the Rubin camp were to win out, it would boost the odds that an Obama presidency might sidestep significant trade restrictions and sacrifice spending programs for the sake of deficit reduction.

``I worry about his influence,'' says Leo Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers.

Trumka, 59, says the AFL-CIO began months ago to look for candidates for Cabinet posts, including the Treasury and Energy Departments, as well as the Federal Reserve.

``This will not be business as usual for us,'' Trumka says in an interview. ``They're not going to be able to pat us on the head and say, we'll let you give us three names for the secretary of labor, and think that we'll be happy.''

Getting Out the Vote

Obama, 47, can't afford to alienate organized labor. Union households account for almost one in four U.S. voters, and labor is crucial to turning out the vote. The 10.5 million-member AFL- CIO, the nation's largest labor organization, plans to use 250,000 volunteers to contact 13 million voters in 24 states; the Steelworkers plan to deploy 250 paid election workers across 27 states.

One of Obama's biggest challenges, in fact, may be winning a significant share of rank-and-file union voters, who backed Clinton by large margins in Ohio and other industrial swing states.

So far, Obama's economic promises satisfy most union goals. The Illinois senator has said he would reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement. He backs universal health-care coverage, middle-class tax cuts and spending for infrastructure and education.

``I'm very comfortable with the way Senator Obama personally has laid out his agenda,'' Gerard says.

Radio Ad

Obama's rhetoric has often veered toward protectionism. A radio commercial in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania says McCain appeared at a Sturgis, South Dakota, motorcycle rally after opposing rules that would make the government buy vehicles from U.S. manufacturers such as Milwaukee-based Harley-Davidson Inc.

``It's time to hear the roar of a strong American economy again -- and stop John McCain from shipping our jobs overseas,'' the ad says.

After criticizing Nafta while stumping for primary votes in states that have lost manufacturing jobs, Obama rarely brings up the trade deal since claiming the nomination. He told reporters on June 20 that ``there was some overheated rhetoric'' about trade during the primaries, while reiterating his opposition to Nafta.

Since Rubin began advising the campaign, Obama and his team are also talking more about deficit reduction, a Rubin priority that may threaten union-backed spending programs.

Strong Dollar

At an Aug. 5 town hall meeting in Berea, Ohio, Obama touted the benefits of a strong dollar, a cause Rubin championed at the Treasury. ``A strengthening of the dollar'' would mitigate rising gasoline prices, he said.

The statement appalled economists aligned with unions, which fear that a stronger dollar would make imported goods cheaper and hurt export sales. ``The strong-dollar policy is very harmful,'' says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. ``There's some real fundamental differences between the Rubinites and the labor people, and I don't know how you get them on the same page.''

Obama seems to be trying. Last month, he told reporters that, while he planned to cut the deficit, ``it is important for us to make some critical investments right now in America's families.'' In an Aug. 9 radio speech, he mentioned the budget deficit, then pledged to close tax loopholes that he said encourage companies to move jobs overseas.

In the end, the competition for influence between laborites and Rubinites may actually prove politically helpful, says Charlie Cook, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

``What you need is two loud voices in the room to keep Obama down the middle, which is where he needs to be to get elected,'' Cook says.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington at kjensen@bloomberg.net; Matt Benjamin in Washington at mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net

Visceral trumps cerebral

By Dick Pulman

Any Obama fan who believes that the presumptive Democratic nominee is well positioned to woo anti-abortion voters - indeed, any Obama fan who is giddily anticipating an easy November victory - would be well advised to check the transcript, or view the video, of the faith forum hosted on Saturday night by pastor/author Rick Warren. More...

Any Obama fan who believes that the presumptive Democratic nominee is well positioned to woo anti-abortion voters - indeed, any Obama fan who is giddily anticipating an easy November victory - would be well advised to check the transcript, or view the video, of the faith forum hosted on Saturday night by pastor/author Rick Warren.

As I outlined here last Thursday, Barack Obama is trying to give equal time in the party platform to anti-abortion voters, mostly by signaling that he supports expanded alternatives to the procedure, with the aim of reducing over time the total number of abortions. The potential problem, however, is that few voters pay attention to party platforms. What the candidates say on TV - and how they say it - is probably more persuasive. Which brings us to the nationally-broadcast forum at the evangelical Saddleback megachurch.

Warren brought up the abortion issue, and then asked Obama, "At what point does a baby get human rights, in your view?" Obama then replied, "Well, I think that whether you are looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade. But let me just speak more generally about the issue..."

One hour later, with John McCain in the chair, Warren asked virtually the same question: "At what point is a baby entitled to human rights?"

McCain did not hesitate. He replied: "At the moment of conception."

Which response is likely to resonate with the vast majority of anti-abortion voters - the unequivocal declarative sentence....or the evasive rumination that (to many people) probably comes off as stereotypical Democratic intellectual dithering?

By the way, the abortion portion of the evening actually got worse for Obama after his "pay grade" evasion. He quickly tried this segue: "The goal right now should be - and this is where I think we can find common ground...is how do we reduce the number of abortions, because the fact is that although we've had a president who is opposed to abortions over the last eight years, abortions have not gone down." Warren heard him out, and then asked him the perfect follow-up question: "Have you ever voted to limit or reduce abortions?"

Obama's response: "I am in favor, for example, of limits on late-term abortions if there is an exception for the mother's health. Now, from the perspective of those who, you know, are pro-life, I think they would consider that inadequate. And I respect their views. I mean, one of the things that I've always said is that on this particular issue..."

And off he went on another extended ramble, which failed to mask the fact that he never answered the question, never cited any past votes to reduce abortions. And along the way, he also made a factual error. Warren didn't call him on it (luckily for Obama), but I will. Whereas Obama claimed that, during President Bush's tenure, "abortions have not gone down," the data shows otherwise. According to the nonpartisan Guttmacher Institute, the most respected keeper of such stats, there were eight percent fewer abortions in 2005 (the latest year available) than in 2000. And during that initial phase of the Bush era (2001 through 2005), the total number of abortions declined each year.

All told, I doubt that anti-abortion voters were drawn to Obama's cerebral ruminations. It's certainly true that McCain is hardly the anti-abortion diehard that he purported to be on Saturday night - back in 1999, he stated that “in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade," and he has never supported a federal constitutional amendment banning all abortions - but he did not ruminate on any of that (nor did Warren ask him, either). All the viewers saw was how he answered on camera: short, direct, declarative. Hence, easy to remember.

The same stylistic gap - cerebral versus visceral - was evident at several other points in the forum, again to Obama's potential disadvantage. Such as the exchanges about the nature of evil.

Warren asked Obama: "Does evil exist, and if it does, do we ignore it, do we negotiate with it, do we contain it, or do we defeat it?"

Obama's response: "Evil does exist. I mean, we see evil all the time. We see evil in Darfur. We see evil in parents have viciously abused their children and I think it has to be confronted. It has to be confronted squarely and one of the things that I strongly believe is that, you know, we are not going to, as individuals, be able to erase evil from the world...Now, the one thing that I think is very important for us is to have humility in how we approach the issue of confronting evil, but, you know, a lot of evil has been perpetrated based on the claim that we were trying to confront evil...And I think one thing that's very important is having some humility in recognizing that, you know, just because we think our intentions are good doesn't always mean that we're going to be doing good..."

One hour later, Warren asked McCain the same question about evil and what we should do about it. McCain's response began this way:

"Defeat it."

Then he segued right into his comfort zone, and stayed there: "My friends, we are facing the transcendent challenge of the 21st century, radical Islamic extremists...If that (suicide bombing) isn't evil, you have to tell me what is, and we're going to defeat this evil...and we face this threat throughout the world. It's not just in Iraq. It's not just in Afghanistan. Our intelligence people tell us that al Qaeda continues to try to establish cells here in the United States of America...We must face this challenge and we must totally defeat it..."

Most Obama supporters undoubtedly believe that McCain came off as simplistic, that he sounded like a talking point for the politics of fear. But from the perspective of a low-information swing voter, I'd bet that McCain came off a lot better than Obama.

The biggest gut factor in this campaign is whether these swing voters can envision Obama tackling effectively with a national security crisis in the middle of the night. A ruminative ramble about evil, about the need for "humility" when trying to confront the evil that may exist in Darfur or in American households or wherever, does not have nearly the same visceral punch as a terse, focused response about al Qaeda (indeed, Obama never even got around to mentioning al Qaeda).

I'm not suggesting that McCain's qualitiative arguments were better or worse (he riffed yet again about "victory" in Iraq, as ever ill-defined). I'm suggesting only that, with respect to the communicative arts in this media-saturated culture, nuanced thoughtfulness is arguably less effective than declarative directness; indeed, the former is particularly perilous for any Democrat, since, fairly or not, millions of low-information swing voters still view the Democrats as insufficiently resolute. These voters are likely to favor the declarative approach anyway, if only because it is easier to ascertain where the candidate stands.

And this is potentially a warning bell for Obama, as the autumn debate season draws near. McCain will be far tougher in those three sessions than many Obama fans assume. Obama might be well advised to lose the nuance and punch up his responses; after all, as a general rule, visceral trumps cerebral.


Posted by Dick Polman @ 11:13 AM

Yet another reason to loose respect for Ms. Pelosi...

How can our animosity towards her get any worse, right? I didn't think it was possible.

UNTIL NOW:
[Obama] was warmly received by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who called him "a leader that God has blessed us with at this time."
ick...

SOURCE: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_I_will_win.html

Africans for Obama 2008 sending delegates to Denver?

It's interesting to focus on people who can't vote and aren't citizens let alone fellow democrats. Then I guess now that Wesley Clark's not coming there's more room...

At “citizen of the world” Barack Obama’s My.BarackObama.com official website, there is a “members only” Africans for Obama community blog and an East Africans for Obama open community blog. There is also the Africans for Obama Campaign Committee which describes itself as

… “a national organization that brings together Africans, people of African descent, and friends of Africa who are supporting Senator Barack Obama’s campaign for president of the United States of America. The headquarters is located in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, with branches in various states and cities.”

But there’s more.

More...

Would it surprise anyone to know that Africans for Obama 2008—which is headquartered in Nigeria—plans to send a delegation to the DNC convention in Denver?

Would it surprise anyone to know that in July 2008 efforts were made “to secure more tickets to enable more Nigerians [to] attend the Democratic Party convention”?

Would it surprise anyone to know that Eric Wright, reportedly a South African who is Obama’s policy maker for Africa, was not only present at an Africans for Obama 2008 fund-raising dinner held on Obama’s behalf on Monday, August 11, 2008, at the Shell Hall Muson in Lagos, Nigeria, but purposely flew in from South Africa in order to attend it?

To be perfectly honest, it is getting more and more difficult to find anything to be surprised about when talking about the Obama campaign. Up is down, down is up … you all should know the drill by now.

Let’s start with the mysterious Eric Wright. Although RBO cannot be certain, it is possible that Eric Wright is the J. Eric Wright whose LinkIn profile says that he is CEO of Africa Venture Partners, which has been “active in African telecommunications and technology for more than 15 years”, and previously the head of private equity at Citicorp. His profile also shows him with the LinkedIn group Obama for America. This would be the same James Eric Wright who is a 1992 Wharton School graduate that headed private equity and venture capital for Citigroup in South Africa. (P.S. This is about investments in Africa, is it not?)

Just in case Wright should develop a sudden case of Obamnesia, we do have a number of details that were published about the fund-raiser in Nigerian online sources. For example, at the Shell Hall

… the floor was covered by a 25 metre long rug with the inscription YES WE CAN, Obama’s campaign slogan. There were also very large posters of Obama at the entrance and the stage. The decoration inside was splendid with the roof covered with various colours. At the dinner, a documentary by celebrity presenter, Bisi Olatilo, was aired.

Additionally, lest Wright has forgotten already, Simon Ateba of OnlineNigeria wrote the following on August 12, 2008:

Wright said that he did not speak for Obama or for the campaign team.

He was however evasive about how an Obama presidency will handle African issues.

He said there was no policy for Africa at the moment. He explained that if Obama becomes President, Africa will be closer to Washington than it is at the moment. He did not address the issue of an American military base in Africa and did not go into details.

Sonala Olumhense commented August 17, 2008, at Nigeria Village Square:

The obvious contradiction is how a campaign that cannot possibly accept funds from a foreign constituency send a
representative to, in effect, help collect damaging financial support.

The questions now begin to pile up:

  • Why in the world was Wright present at the fund-raiser?
  • How many tickets to the Democratic convention have Africans for Obama 2008 purchased?
  • Have these “tickets” been reported to the FEC in fund-raising totals by the Obama campaign?
  • Does the FEC know about this?

What is perfectly clear is that there is some major fund-raising hanky panky afoot, not to mention possible interference with a U.S. presidential election.

Africans for Obama 2008 was launched July 18, 2008, at a World Press Conference held at the Golden Gate Restaurant, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria, by the organization’s chairman, Ndi Okereke-Onyiuke, Ph.D., OON, who is chairman of Transcorp and Director General for the past decade of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Lolade of the Lagos City Photos Blog, who attended the press conference, provides some background on the Obama - Okereke-Onyiuke connection:

(CNN, 02/08 in Tanzania) Its a personal project of hers [Ndi Okereke-Onyiuke] because she said she met Barack Obama in 2005 at a dinner where she was honoured by the American Congressional Black Caucus and the Senator had joined a long queue that wanted to take pictures with her. She had been pleasantly surprised two years later when the young man had declared his intention to be president of America. Hence, what better way to support him than by calling for all Africans who have kith and kin in America (about 3 million naturalised Africans are eligible to vote in America according to the group’s figures) to influence their people to vote enmasse for Obama.

Here we must insert another question.

  • What connection is there, if any, between the Congressional Black Caucus and Okereke-Onyiuke and her Africans for Obama 2008 fund-raising—and presidential election support—efforts?

On August 13, 2008, Tamunobarabi Gogo Ibulubo, an AfricaNews reporter located in Niger Delta, Nigeria, reported on the Africans for Obama dinner and concert:

… Lagos participants agreed that there was need to foster efforts and marshal out ways of raising voting awareness that would make Africans in America vote massively for Senator Obama to the win the election. [...]

The Africans For Obama 2008 was formed last Month to provide leadership for similar groups in other Africa countries in raising voting awareness among Africans to support Obama.

The Nigeria platform is being used because it is home to about twenty per cent of African 830 million people.

In the July news report, Ambassador Dr. Erieka Bennett (pictured here with Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.), the group’s Vice Chairman in Ghana, and Interim Chairperson of the Diaspora African Forum, called for Nigerians to support Obama: “I challenge all of you today to make calls to all your naturalised family in America and encourage them to go out and vote”. Bennett pointed out “with the population of African-Americans standing at 36.4 million, Americans of African descent should have a shot at the presidency given that America was home to all races and colour.”

Another question:

  • Since it is obvious from the photograph above that Rev. Jackson—who just so happens to also be an Obama supporter—has a relationship with Dr. Bennett, where might he fit in with Africans for Obama 2008?
  • Or does he at all?

Electoral Map - Obama only +12 with no Toss up states

The race is drawing MUCH closer...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Beneath Contempt

From Anglachel's Journal, reposted here to share

So Howard Dean called the Republican Party "the white party". Strategically speaking, this insult (he has said it before in other situations so it is neither a gaffe nor an accident) is beyond tone deaf and is sheer political idiocy. This moronic mouthing off plays into every standard stereotype of an arrogant Stevensonian elitist and adds fuel to the race-baiting fires already burning through the Democrats' support this year, thanks to Obama's smear-and-run campaign. More...

This is a different claim than if Dean had gone after the Republicans as the "racist party" or even the "anti-minorty party", which is what he probably thought he was doing. By making an insult out of a biological fact instead of a pattern of behavior, Dean has declared that he (and thus Democrats as such, being as how he is the DNC Chair) think that "white" is a suspect and dangerous category of person. He did a crude inversion of racist claims about non-whites and it says a hell of a lot about the moral and ethical midden between Dean's ears.

What has Dean done? He has replaced political claims with personal morality, and has attached that moral condition to a biological one. One of the things this electoral cycle has thrown into relief is the way in which Stevensonians like Dean make shame stand in for policy, and reduce structural problems in society into questions of personal choice. This approach intellectualizes material problems, such as health care or just compensation, rejecting relationships of power or even common sense evaluation of actual living conditions in favor of finger wagging at the people on the short-end of the stick. Retrograde social beliefs (Guns & God!) are the reason for economic stagnation, not the gutless behavior of Congress or state legislatures. It looks aside from power relationships that keep socio-economic elites in control, and doesn't want to sully its pure ideas with "pandering" i.e., providing material benefits to woo rank and file supporters away from the other side. "You people" should know that we are your salvation from your benighted lives. You should be smart enough to know better than to vote for the other guy, and you can't be mad if we dump on you for being so stupid. If you won't do what you know you should do, I'm going to call you WHITE, so there!

This is both insult and challenge. It offers only stick and no carrot, and it does so by trying to shame people for inhabiting a condition they cannot change - their own skin. This is why racial categories are so deeply pernicious; how can you stop being you genetic condition? Race rather than racism, a condition rather than a behavior, is targeted with no way out.

This has to be the absolutely worst way to try to get people to abandon their cultural identification. It is reducing the complexity of an individual to a stereotype rather than teasing out the parts of that identity that can be built up in opposition to the artificial simplicity of that stereotype.

What can it mean for an incredibly privileged male of Northern European ethnic decent to snear that the main opposition party is the "white party"? He may imagine that everybody who hears this of course understands that he means a particular mode of societal privilege that is normative for how individuals are ranked and treated and which is encapsulated in a speech act that accompanies the term "white", which is not equivalent to genetic inheritance but is rather a socially constructed patterns of rules, behaviors, unarticulated expectations for relative treatment accorded to specific individuals without regard for their particularity, but most people think Howie just said, "White people suck." And how is it that Dean can exempt himself and all of his predominantly white and male cohorts from that incendiary claim?

Like it or not, Howard Dean has just made the claim that if you are white, you are A) racist and B) Republican, your actual acts and deeds in this world not withstanding. The only way to be relieved of this taint is to vote Obama. Not even Democrat - you must vote for Obama. If Obama should fail at the polls, then all "white" Americans stand indicted for racism because that is the only way he can fail and the only reason for failing to vote for The Precious is you're just a racist white Republican at heart.

The impulse among old-line Stevensonian leadership to accuse other people of racism at the drop of a hat, categorically condemning millions of white voters, will do nothing to bring voters of all ethnicities together to support progressive politics. This is a fundamental failure of this faction within the Democratic Party and is why we consistently lose national elections.

Anglachel

Obama to General Wesley Clark: Your Services Not Needed

General Wesley Clark is not attending the Democratic National Convention.

Clark was informed by Barack Obama's people that there was no reason to come.

General Clark has been given no role of any kind at the convention.

Rubbing salt in the wound even more, the "theme" of Wednesday's Democratic convention agenda is "Securing America."

Wesley Clark's PAC also happens to be called SECURING AMERICA.

This is a mistake in my view. There are a lot of perspectives and competing agendas about how to direct America's next national security posture -- and General Wesley Clark should be one of the top tier names and personalities at the table.

Clark is loved by the netroots -- and I'm sure that they would hope that the Obama campaign will revisit this decision to exclude General Wesley Clark from the entire Democratic National Convention ageda.

-- Steve Clemons

Update: I have reconfirmed with General Wesley Clark's office that he has not been asked to play a role at the Democratic National Convention. His staff have told me that while his schedule remains tight, he would rearrange his schedule to help play any constructive role on any days of the convention if asked.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Stolen Nomination? You bet.

Reposted here from MakeThemAccountable.com

Stolen Nomination? You bet. (MakeThemAccountable) The 2008 Democratic Party nomination for the presidency was stolen from Hillary Clinton and given to Barack Obama by certain members of the party leadership. Click through to read the deep, dark secret that the party leaders want to keep the public from knowing.

The 2008 Democratic Party nomination for the presidency was stolen from Hillary Clinton and given to Barack Obama by certain members of the party leadership.

Five states broke the primary timing rules, but only two—big states that Hillary was sure to win, Michigan and Florida—were penalized. The holding back of those two states gave Obama the ability to claim he was ahead in the race, even when he wasn’t. Unfortunately, a lot of people fell for that nonsense and started to consider him the frontrunner. That had an impact on media coverage and likely influenced the vote in later primaries. Paul Lukasiak documented this problem on several blogs, including InsightAnalytical, and found other evidence of what he calls “‘stop Hillary’ corruption” among certain members of the party leadership.More...

There was manipulation, if not outright fraud, in the caucuses. A group is making a film about it, and Lynette Long offers a preview. Pacific John, writing at MyDD, gave us a taste of what went on in Texas, but it wasn’t the only state with serious problems reported. Lambert reports on Texas caucus fraud and the general unfairness of caucuses at Corrente. Dr. Long has started a new website, Caucus Fraud, to document as much as possible of what happened.

Peniel Cronin’s final report, “Primary versus Caucus: How millions of voters were systemically disenfranchised and election results were skewed” has just been published at TalkLeft (pdf). The most significant findings:
Though voters in all 13 caucus states cast only 2.9% of the total 35.9 million votes those caucus votes control 14.6% of the pledged delegates and 15.5% of the Super delegates sent to the DNC Convention…

39 Primaries with 34.8 million voters gave Clinton a lead in both votes and delegates. Caucuses with 1.1 million voters gave Obama 300,000 more votes and 206 more delegates.
Alegre has more on the allocation of delegates, including this gem:
Hillary won the state of Nevada 51%-45%
…but by the time the contest reached the state convention, she ended up with 3 fewer delegates.
Hillary won the popular vote, according to ABC News. The information is no longer available on the ABC News website, but both No Quarter and Taylor Marsh documented it at the time:
POPULAR VOTE (all primaries and caucuses)
Hillary Clinton: 17,785,009
Barack Obama: 17,479,990
Rather than being penalized for the tactical move of removing his name from the Michigan ballot, on May 31 Obama was rewarded instead, by the Rules & Bylaws Committee of the DNC. He was given delegates who didn’t vote for him, and was even given four of HILLARY’s delegates. There is no precedent for that kind of theft. Lambert explains at Corrente how the committee broke its own sunshine rules to decide on the delegate donation.

Had the RBC not halved the votes from Florida and Michigan and given to Obama delegates who didn’t vote for him, Hillary would also be ahead in pledged delegates. From Riverdaughter at The Confluence:

[N]ow we know why the RBC did what [they] did. She had over 100 delegates from Florida and 73 from Michigan. If he got zero from Michigan and both states had been able to seat with full strength, she could have added over 86 delegates and he would have lost 59. Hmm, that brings her total to 1725 and Obama’s to 1707.

If that’s not a stolen nomination, I don’t know what is.




How McCain Won Saddleback

In an unusual setting, his experience overwhelmed Obama.

By Byron York

Lake Forest, Calif. — It’s fair to say that in the hours before John McCain appeared with Barack Obama at the “Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency,” here at Pastor Rick Warren’s famed southern California mega-church, there were at least a few McCain insiders who were a bit nervous about their candidate’s prospects. Obama can be remarkably polished in this sort of situation. Unlike other Democrats, he’s not afraid to hang out with evangelicals. McCain, on the other hand, can at times be cranky and take pleasure in irritating his base. Could he come out ahead in this one?

Team McCain needn’t have worried. This was not your usual political TV show. Warren — Pastor Rick, around here — asked big questions, about big subjects; he wasn’t concerned about what appeared on the front page of that morning’s Washington Post. And his simple, direct, big questions brought out something we don’t usually see in a presidential face-off; in this forum, as opposed to a read-the-prompter speech, or even a debate focused on the issues of the moment, the candidates were forced to call on everything they had — the things they have done and learned throughout their lives. And the fact is, John McCain has lived a much bigger life than Barack Obama. That’s not a slam at Obama; McCain has lived a much bigger life than most people. But it still made Obama look small in comparison. McCain was the clear winner of the night. More...

The idea was for Warren to question Obama for an hour — they tossed a coin to see who would go first — and then ask the same questions of McCain, who was not allowed to hear what Obama had answered before him. Not a few people in the press thought it was a bad idea. Asking each man the same questions meant Warren couldn’t tailor his queries to each man; sure, he could ask Obama about Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but what sense would it make to ask McCain, too? It seemed like a recipe for nothing much at all.

But Pastor Rick hasn’t built a huge church and sold more than 25 million copies of The Purpose-Driven Life for nothing. By the time Warren finished questioning Obama, people were eager to hear how McCain would handle the same subjects. In a debate, candidates are often asked the same question, but the second guy has always heard what the first guy said and tailors his answer accordingly. At Saddleback, there was something much different — and more revealing — going on.

The contrast was striking throughout each man’s one-hour time on stage. When Warren asked Obama, “What’s the most gut-wrenching decision you’ve ever had to make?” Obama answered that opposing the war in Iraq was “as tough a decision that I’ve had to make, not only because there were political consequences but also because Saddam Hussein was a bad person and there was no doubt he meant America ill.” But Obama was a state senator in Illinois when Congress authorized the president to use force in Iraq. He didn’t have to make a decision on the war. That fact was a recurring issue in the Democratic primaries, when candidates Hillary Clinton, Joseph Biden, Christopher Dodd, and John Edwards argued that they, as senators, had to make a choice Obama didn’t have to make. And now he says it’s his toughest call.

When McCain got the question, he was able to tell an old story with a sense of gravity and poignancy that he seldom shows in public. He described his time as a prisoner of war, when he was offered a chance for early release because his father was a top naval officer. “I was in rather bad physical shape,” McCain told Warren, but “we had a code of conduct that said you only leave by order of capture.” So McCain refused to go. He made the telling even more forceful when he added that, “in the spirit of full disclosure, I’m very happy I didn’t know the war was going to last for another three years or so.” In one moment, he showed a sense of pride and a hint of regret, too; he came across as a man who did the right thing but not without the temptation to take an easy out. In any event, the message was very clear: John McCain has had to make bigger, more momentous decisions in his life than has Barack Obama.

McCain bested Obama again when Warren asked for an example of a time in which he “went against party loyalty and maybe even against your own best interest for the good of America.”

“Well, I’ll give you an example that in fact I worked with John McCain on,” Obama said, “and that was the issue of campaign ethics reform and finance reform.” But it turned out that was an issue on which Obama had briefly allied with McCain and then jumped back to the Democratic mother ship, causing McCain to write Obama an angry note about the abandonment of what had been a principled position. As far as bucking your party goes, it wasn’t very big stuff.



When McCain got the question, everyone in the room thought he would bring up campaign-finance reform, the issue on which he has alienated the Republican base for years. But he didn’t. “Climate change, out-of-control spending, torture,” he said. “The list goes on.” McCain’s prime example, though, was his story of opposing Ronald Reagan’s decision to send a contingent of Marines to Lebanon as a peacekeeping force. “My knowledge and my background told me that a few hundred Marines in a situation like that could not successfully carry out any kind of peacekeeping mission, and I thought they were going into harm’s way,” McCain said. But he deeply admired Reagan, and wanted to be loyal to the party; it was a difficult decision.

McCain answered the whole question without touching on campaign finance; he had so much more life experience to draw on that he could swamp Obama without using everything he had.

And on it went. On questions like the nature of evil and causes worth dying for, McCain’s depth stood out. And that was true even when he admitted wrongdoing. Early on in the questioning, Warren asked each man, “What…would be the greatest moral failure in your life, and what would be the greatest moral failure of America?” Obama answered that he drank and “experimented” with drugs as a teenager, which he attributed to his own selfishness. McCain, on the other hand, said, “The failure of my first marriage. It’s my greatest moral failure.”

McCain’s actions in that matter are nothing to brag about, but what came from it onstage at Saddleback was the sense that he was willing to dig deeper and take a greater risk in his answer than had Obama. McCain knew that critics on the left, looking for a way to change the subject from the John Edwards affair, had been pointing to the end of McCain’s first marriage. But McCain took the subject straight on. “He could have avoided that altogether or come up with some other answer,” Chip Pickering, the Mississippi Republican representative, told me later in the “Messaging Room.” (There’s no “Spin Room” at Saddleback; just a “Messaging Room.”) “But he very quickly, cleanly, and clearly confessed his failure.” Still, I said to Pickering, adultery doesn’t sit well with evangelicals, and that’s what McCain was talking about, wasn’t it? “The clarity of confessing his failure — there will be respect in the evangelical community for doing so,” Pickering answered.

Finally, there was the question of abortion. In the days leading up to the forum, pro-lifers had been worried that Warren was not going to include a question on the issue, focusing instead on things like poverty, AIDS, and the “new” evangelical agenda. But Warren brought it up, simple and straight. “At what point does a baby get human rights, in your view?” he asked Obama.

“Well, I think that whether you are looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade,” Obama answered. “But let me just speak more generally about the issue of abortion because this is something obviously the country wrestles with. One thing that I’m absolutely convinced of is there is a moral and ethical content to this issue. So I think that anybody who tries to deny the moral difficulties and gravity of the abortion issue, I think, is not paying attention. So that would be point number one.” Obama went on to say that he is pro-choice. Even for people who agreed with him, it wasn’t a terribly impressive answer.

An hour later, when Warren asked McCain the same thing, he got this: “At the moment of conception. I have a 25-year pro-life record in the Congress, in the Senate, and as president of the United States, I will be a pro-life president and this presidency will have pro-life policies.”

“Okay — we don’t have to go longer on that one,” Warren said, quickly moving on.

Obama had nothing to win on the question; if anything, he seemed wary of saying something that might anger his pro-choice base. But McCain had a lot at stake with this group, and his answer seemed to settle the concerns of social conservatives who have been rattled by reports that he might be considering a pro-choice running mate. While many evangelicals have softened on the issue of gay marriage, they wanted to hear a solid, clear statement from McCain on abortion. “Abortion and marriage are still pivotal issues…but I think that abortion is probably more pivotal than marriage,” Marlys Popma, the Iowa social conservative who is now McCain’s national coordinator for evangelical issues, told me after the forum. “Abortion is still very, very solid with this group, even the younger ones [who are more liberal on marriage]. Life is a real delineating factor.”

To further press the case on abortion, McCain had brought along New Jersey Republican Rep. Chris Smith, one of the most forceful pro-life voices in Congress. After the forum, I asked Smith whether Obama had helped himself at all with pro-lifers. Just the opposite, Smith said. “I thought Sen. Obama’s statement in quoting Matthew 25, which is my favorite scripture since I was in high school — ‘Whatever you do to the least of my brethren, you do likewise to me’ — when as a matter of record he voted against [a ban on partial-birth abortion ]…well, I find it discouraging and disingenuous for him to talk about the least of our brethren.”

As far as the crowd is concerned, it was clear that McCain was the favorite. That was hardly a surprise; at a small gathering I attended a few years ago, someone asked Warren how many of his parishioners voted for John Kerry. He thought for a moment and said 15 percent. So the conservative Saddleback crowd, while happy to see Obama in their midst, was not going to be on his side. What they wanted was proof that John McCain was on theirs, and that’s what they got.



Byron York, NR’s White House correspondent, is the author of the book The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy: The Untold Story of How Democratic Operatives, Eccentric Billionaires, Liberal Activists, and Assorted Celebrities Tried to Bring Down a President — and Why They’ll Try Even Harder Next Time.

N.O.W. Book Signing

See corrected date for this event. Join Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney in Albany, New York for Book Signing for her new book.”Rumors of Our Progress Have Been Greatly Exaggerated”



Book Signing for "Rumors of Our Progress Have Been Greatly Exaggerated"
by Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney More...

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

7:00 pm - 8:00 pm (Book Signing and Remarks)

Location:
The Bookhouse
Styuvesant Plaza,
Albany, NY

Rumors of Our Progress Have Been Greatly Exaggerated by Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney shatters the myths about how far we’ve come, highlighting how women’s issues permeate every realm of society, and how political change has provided only a fraction of a solution.

Senator Hillary Clinton says: “My colleague and friend Carolyn Maloney has been a tireless and effective advocate for women in America and abroad. I applaud her ongoing efforts to highlight issues affecting women and to fight for solutions that improve women’s lives.”

If women have made so much “progress” why haven’t their lives gotten any easier? Why do most American women say they don’t get enough sleep and that balancing work and family is getting harder? Why do they make 77 cents to a man’s dollar? And why must Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney still fight to preserve rights-such as educational equality and even birth control-that seemed secure in the 1970s?

Mixing wit with withering criticism, Maloney exposes where progress for women is being stalled, even reversed, by “family values champions” who prefer women’s roles and rights of the 1950’s. She argues that gains for women and girls have only been a down payment on realizing their full potential, which will be indispensable to maintaining their families’ quality of life, and America’s standard of living, in the 21st century global economy.

Maloney offers actionable steps-large and small-for women to make real progress and support real family values in their homes, communities, workplaces and nation.

Gallup Poll: John McCain & Barack Obama tie if the Election were Held Today!

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking for Aug. 14-16 finds John McCain and Barack Obama tied at 45% in the latest presidential election trial heat.
The race has tightened over the past several days with Obama's modest advantage over McCain disappearing. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) Registered voters' preferences appear quite stable at the moment -- in the last five individual days of Gallup tracking polling, the candidates have been closely matched with neither candidate holding more than a two percentage point advantage on any day. More...


Obama has returned from his Hawaiian vacation and will have one more week of campaigning before the Democratic national convention takes place in Denver starting Aug. 25. The Republican convention will take place the following week. -- Jeff Jones


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The Obama Balloon...

Latino voting bloc rises at a bad time for black pols

The Philadelphia Enquirer

Two eye-catching things were buried in the new Census Bureau projection that, by 2042, America will no longer be a white man's country. One is that the proportion of African Americans also will fade, or at least not get much bigger. The other is that the number of Hispanics will soar, to about 30 percent of the country's population.

Not only will America not be a white-majority country; but it will almost certainly be a bilingual nation. In many cities, Spanish will as likely to be heard on the streets, in schools and workplaces as English will. This seismic demographic revolution is already happening in many urban neighborhoods. There has been huge growth in Latino-owned businesses and media ownership, and a growing employment dominance in retail and manufacturing industries. In years to come, in entire areas of the country, the economic shake-up will be colossal. More...

The biggest shake-up will be in politics. That's the area with greatest angst potential for blacks.

In 2000, the 23 million blacks eligible to vote outweighed the 13 million eligible Latino voters, even though Latinos had by then virtually reached parity with blacks in the population. More than one-third of the Latino population was younger than 18. Forty percent of Latinos of eligible voting age were noncitizens, compared with only 5 percent of blacks.

Those numbers have radically changed. Since the 2000 election, the number of citizen Latinos of voting age has jumped. Beyond just eligibility, there are now an estimated 15 million registered Latino voters. Compare that with the 15 million black voters in the 2004 election.

That's not the only shift in ethnic politics in America. In past elections, the majority of the Latino vote was concentrated in California, Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado. In the 2008 national elections, helped by the sharp increase in the number of legal and illegal immigrants in the Midwest and Northeast, the Latino vote will have national impact.

In the next couple of months, presumptive presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain will dump millions into Spanish-language ads, pitches, and pleas for votes on Spanish-language stations. When, not if, Democrats and Republicans cut an immigration-reform deal, one of its features almost certainly will include some legalization plan that within a few years will turn thousands more Latino immigrants into vote-casting U.S. citizens. Democrats and Republicans will pour even more time, money and personnel into courting Latino voters. The potential political gain from a massive outreach effort to Latinos is far greater than putting the same resources into courting black voters.

It's sound political reasoning. That effort worked for Republicans in 2004, when Bush got nearly 40 percent of the Latino vote. The Democrats, meanwhile, maintain a solid lock on the black vote. In every election since 1964, blacks have given more than 80 percent to 90 percent of their votes to the Democrats. They will give even more of their vote to Obama this election.

With the tantalizing prospect of a small, nonetheless important, segment of newly enfranchised Latino voters going Republican, there's no political incentive for Republicans to do more to get the black vote. That even includes their relentless pursuit of black evangelicals. Hispanic evangelical churches have an estimated 20 million members, and those numbers are growing yearly. According to a survey by the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life project, the majority of Latino evangelicals are conservative, pro-family, antiabortion and antigay marriage. Latino evangelicals are GOP-friendly, and they have political clout. They got several mainstream evangelical groups to back the Senate compromise immigration-reform bill. And while the National Association of Evangelicals stopped short of backing the Senate bill, it still urged "humane" immigration law.

The leap in Latino voting strength comes at a bad time for black politicians. Although the number of black elected officials has held steady in state offices and in Congress, the spectacular growth of prior years has flattened out. The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies reported only a marginal increase after the 2004 elections in the number of black elected officials, mostly in a handful of Deep South states and Illinois.

Politicians already are de-emphasizing traditional black issues. Obama and McCain have been virtually mute on miserably failing inner-city schools, soaring black unemployment, prison incarceration, and the HIV/AIDS crisis that has torn black communities.

The new reality is that immigration, both legal and illegal, has drastically changed the ethnic and political landscape. As whites fade into a minority, the great fear is that blacks could fade just as fast in numbers and political power.

Myths of the Obamacans

By Christopher Caldwell

Published: August 15 2008 18:50 | Last updated: August 15 2008 18:50

One of the winning passages in Barack Obama’s speeches is his description of the Republicans flocking to his campaign rallies. “They whisper to me. They say: ‘Barack, I’m a Republican, but I support you.’ And I say ... ” – here Mr Obama usually lowers his voice to a stage whisper – “‘Thank you.’” The founding of Republicans for Obama this week by former congressman Jim Leach of Iowa, former senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Rita Hauser, a former fundraiser for George W. Bush, seems merely to make official a phenomenon that is already widespread. “There is going to be a split in the Republican base on foreign policy,” Mr Chafee told reporters, “because the Bush-Cheney approach has been such a failure all over the world.”

Is this true? Mr Obama is making a big pitch to Republicans. He has spoken glowingly of Ronald Reagan, is friendly to religious voters and has invested heavily in advertising and staffing not just in the swing states of the Midwest but also in such Republican strongholds as Texas. Yet there are a number of myths about “Obamacans” (as Mr Obama calls them) or “Obamacons” (as pundits do). Their numbers are overestimated and their import is misunderstood. More...

If there is a recent Republican flight to Mr Obama, foreign policy is not at the core of it. While the Iraq war has been unpopular, Republicans paid the price in defections – a steep one – well before Mr Obama’s rise. The founders of Republicans for Obama all had grave misgivings about the Iraq war. Ms Hauser endorsed John Kerry in 2004. Mr Chafee was the only Republican in the Senate to vote against the resolution permitting the use of force in Iraq. He was constantly rumoured to be on the verge of leaving the party. After his defeat in the Democratic landslide of 2006, he did.

Of the trio, it is Mr Leach who is the key defector. Although he called this week for a “new approach to our interaction with the world”, he was best known, until his own defeat in 2006, as chairman of the House banking committee and a financial watchdog of high integrity. Among today’s Republicans are many who still profess Mr Leach’s budget-balancing kind of conservatism. Mr Obama’s fiscal policy is more compatible with such a conservatism than the deficit-widening tax-cuts John McCain proposes. In fact, Mr McCain’s career of eloquent opposition to George W. Bush’s tax slashing is more compatible with Mr Obama’s platform than his own. According to a new poll from the Pew Research Centre, McCain supporters, asked to say what they admire about Mr Obama, most often name his economic positions.

It is neither on foreign policy nor on economics but on religious values that Mr Obama has made his big pitch to party-switchers. In July, he shocked some Democrats by defending Mr Bush’s use of faith-based programmes as government service providers. He did so in Zanesville, Ohio, one of the most heavily evangelical towns in the country. A study released last week by the Barna Group, a Christian consulting firm, found Mr Obama reaping the rewards of his outreach. He leads among non-evangelical born-again Christians, by 43 per cent to 31, although Mr McCain continues to dominate among the highly politicised evangelicals, 61-17.

Mr Obama’s attempt to synthesise new policies is more sincere and thoroughgoing than that of any candidate since Reagan. You would think Republicans would like Mr Obama a lot more than Democrats like Mr McCain, who not only has been on the political scene for a quarter-century but has also signed on to many of the less popular fiscal dogmas of the Bush-era Republican party. But this advantage for Mr Obama in theory has not materialised in practice. Mr McCain has always had a stronger cross-party appeal than any Republican of his generation. As long ago as 2000, the high points of his presidential campaign were those states – Michigan in particular – that had open primaries, permitting Democrats to cross over and vote for him.

Perhaps due to the bitterness of this year’s Democratic primaries, Mr McCain’s advantage in crossover voting persists, according to that Pew poll. Among Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries, only 72 per cent say they will vote for Mr Obama. Fully 18 per cent will back Mr McCain, and another 10 per cent are up for grabs. This is a sharp contrast to Republican supporters of Mr McCain’s primary opponents, 88 per cent of whom will back Mr McCain versus just 6 per cent who will go over to Mr Obama.

The US could benefit from the party shake-up that Mr Obama is trying to effect. That does not mean such a shake-up is happening. Most Obamacans are intellectuals, including a few who are actually conservative, such as the writers Francis Fukuyama and Andrew Bacevich. But the Republican party is no more a natural home for intellectuals than it is for feminists or trades unionists. Much has been made, stupidly, of the support of family members of prominent conservatives, from the daughter of former president Richard Nixon to the son of economist Milton Friedman – as if families never contain political disagreements.

There has been a former assistant secretary here and a former deputy secretary there. But not a single prominent conservative with either an ongoing political career or a continuing affection for the Republican party has yet chosen to back Mr Obama. The endorsement of General Colin Powell, for instance, or Chuck Hagel, the Nebraska senator, would be an election-shifting coup. Unless and until that happens, Obamacans will be a media phenomenon, not a political one.

The writer is a senior editor at The Weekly Standard

More columns at www.ft.com/caldwell