The Media Had Things Wrong From the Start

August 14, 2008
By Steven Stark

With the polls continuing to show John McCain giving Barack Obama a run for his money, much of the press has seemed flummoxed by the turn of events. After all, the narrative of this campaign was supposed to be how a triumphant Obama rode discontent against the Bush administration to an overwhelming victory.

That still could happen. But if reporters seem surprised at the way things have gone so far, it may be because their account of what has already happened is flawed. As the poet once said, what's past is prologue. More...

The dominant narratives of this race have been how Obama upset the odds (and the Clintons) through a brilliant campaign, and how McCain mostly stumbled his way to the nomination, staging a comeback in New Hampshire and riding the momentum to victory. But maybe that's not what really happened. In truth, Obama always had a much better chance of emerging as the nominee than the press gave him credit for -- which is why this column even made him the slight favorite over Hillary Clinton way back in March 2007.

Yes, Obama was new to the national political scene. But in the primaries, insurgency is often an advantage, especially if the novice is as brilliant an orator as Obama. More important, because of Obama's race, he knew that if he could get a successful launch in Iowa or New Hampshire, he could count on solid support in the African-American community that would guarantee him more than a third of the delegates needed to nominate. That's one heck of a benefit, and he took advantage of it.

Moreover, Clinton was never as strong as advertised -- in part because she's not an exceptional campaigner, but mostly because of Clinton fatigue. If she could be beaten early (and she was), it was axiomatic that much of the support she had garnered simply by being the front-runner would evaporate.

True, Obama ran a creditable campaign and proved himself a brilliant fundraiser. But he was no powerhouse. Outside of a few states, such as Wisconsin and Missouri, he was never really able to expand his base beyond his coalition of African-Americans, the young, and the well-educated.

Every time he had a chance to beat Clinton decisively enough to force her from the race -- in New Hampshire or Texas or Pennsylvania or Indiana -- he lost. In fact, had Clinton not committed a major strategic blunder by failing to get organized for the large caucus states, she could have beaten him.

And, given Obama's major demographic advantages, that would have been the upset.

The Real Story

On the GOP side, McCain did catch some lucky breaks. The most notable was that the major figures in the party who could have beaten him -- Jeb Bush, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Newt Gingrich, even Colin Powell -- chose not to run for a variety of reasons. (In Schwarzenegger's case, the decision was made for him by the Constitution.) And true, the field that remained proved to be a weak one.

But McCain won mostly because Republicans almost always avoid upstarts and gravitate to the front-running figure in their party -- an inclination that, for the most part, has served them well in the past. Moreover and predictably, the experience McCain had obtained running in 2000 served him well. He had the guts to skip Iowa (maybe Clinton should have done the same) and he didn't panic when his campaign went through rough stretches. He also "gamed" the process better than anyone else, understanding that, if Rudy Giuliani's candidacy didn't take off, the former New York mayor's support would go to McCain -- as it did on Super Tuesday, giving McCain a lead in delegates that proved decisive.

Given all this, Democrats have reason to be concerned -- even if, at the moment, their confidence has been bolstered by the mostly glowing press coverage their nominee has received. History shows that the Democrats are up against an experienced, steady Republican candidate who is unlikely to make major mistakes. And their nominee, after a brilliant start in January and February to launch his candidacy and cement his base, hasn't had a terrific six months. Obama continues to show few signs of extending his support to the demographics that are likely to decide the election -- principally the working-class voters concentrated in industrial states such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The good news for Obama and the Democrats is that the race doesn't really get serious (i.e., engage the public), until the conventions kick off the fall campaign at the end of August. A win is still well within their grasp. But it will happen only if they stop buying the press's view of the race and begin to recognize what's really transpired so far.

Boston Phoenix

AUG 26 MARCH IN DENVER AND FESTIVAL FOR HILLARY

We are happy to announce that 18 Million Voices Rise Hillary Rise will not only be Marching on August 26th in Denver and nationwide to support Senator Clinton and advocate for Women's Rights worldwide, but we will also be hosting a Festival in Denver's downtown Confluence Park all day on August 26th, and throughout the evening, celebrating the 88th anniversary of Women's suffrage and honoring Senator Hillary Clinton.

Please mark your calendars, and join us in Denver!!

And, please keep checking back to http://18millionvoice... for specific details of the Festival, the nationwide concurrent actions, and details on other actions taking place in Denver supporting Senator Hillary Clinton during the convention.


Thanks,
RiseHillaryRise
Organizer
18 Million Voices Rise Hillary Rise

Barack’s BARRY SOETORO school records found!!

From the every diligent TexasDarlin:

The AP caption reads: “This registration document, made available on Jan. 24, 2007, by the Fransiskus Assisi school in Jakarta, Indonesia, shows the registration of Barack Obama under the name Barry Soetoro into the Catholic school made by his step-father, Lolo Soetoro. The document lists Barry Soetoro as a Indonesian citizen, born on August 4, 1961 in Honolulu, and shows his Muslim step-father listed the boy’s religion as Islam. (AP Photo/ Tatan Syuflana)”.

Which of course discredits THIS picture. More...

And also an American Expat in SouthEast Asia
School documents listed Barry Soetoro as an Indonesian citizen born in Honolulu, Hawaii on 4 August 1961. Barry’s religion was listed as Islam. School documents further record Barry’s father as “L Soetoro Ma” who worked as an official of the Director General’s office in the TNI Topography division of the Indonesian Army.

A classmate, Rony Amir describes Barry Soetoro as enjoying playing football and marbles and of being a very devout Muslim.

“Barry was previously quite religious in Islam. His birth father, Barack Hussein Obama was a Muslim economist from Kenya. Before marrying Ann Dunham, Hussein Obama was married to a woman from Kenya who had seven children. All the relatives of Barry’s father were very devout Muslims”

“We previously often asked him to the prayer room close to the house.” If he was wearing a sarong he looked funny , said Rony Amir, Barry’s classmate when he lived on H Ramli street in Menteng, Jakarta.”

I’ve stated before that I don’t care if Obama Soetoro is Muslim or not, I do care if he has lied about it. I don’t care what color his skin is and I don’t even care if he had gay sex with Larry Sinclair, what I care about is that he has been completely dishonest in all of it and has perpetuated the lie for years now. How can we trust a man to run the country if he can’t even be honest with himself and with us about who he is?

By all means, he should, and hopefully will be disbarred for lying on his official documents about not having other names. IF he has never legally changed his name to Barack Hussein Obama II, then he has falsified his records for running for POTUS and is summarily disqualified. Not withstanding these incidents, he has shown us he is UNFIT to serve either at POTUS or as a US Senator or any other public office.

I don’t think this trip is over. There are other things out there to be uncovered and may be even more damning than this is, if that’s possible. This “man” is not qualified morally, politically, intellectually NOR legally to be POTUS and MUST STEP DOWN AT ONCE!

Failure to step down will lead to civil action, possible impeachment from his office of Senator and disqualification from the Presidential Election. Obama is no longer a viable candidate for the General Election in legal terms regardless of whether the DNC wants him there or not. They cannot legally nominate him. Who is left? Oh yeah, Hillary is.

I guess the DNC will be moving back to DC or to NYC because Chicago is now out of the picture, Michelle won’t be speaking Monday night and they won’t need the 75,000 seat stadium anymore for the coronation of the Manchurian Candidate.

It’s over. Last one out, turn off the lights.

---

**CLINTON’S NAME TO BE PUT IN NOMINATION AT CONVENTION**

NY Times: Democratic officials reached the decision to place the New York Senator’s name on the ballot alongside Obama in Denver.

August 14, 2008, 10:50 am

Clinton’s Name Will Be Put in Nomination

By Jeff Zeleny

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s name will be placed into nomination at the Democratic National Convention, a symbolic move approved by the Obama campaign in an effort to soothe a lingering rift with Clinton supporters.

The decision was reached this week, according to Democratic officials, and will be announced later today. It comes after long negotiations on both sides, with many backers of Mrs. Clinton vigorously pushing for her candidacy to be validated by giving her delegates the chance to support her through a roll call vote.

For Democrats inside the convention center in Denver, as well as the television audience at home, it could create some interesting moments. After the state-by-state roll is tallied, Mrs. Clinton is expected to turn over her cache of delegates to Senator Barack Obama.

So how will Mrs. Clinton, who is a superdelegate herself, vote? Associates say she will throw her lot behind Mr. Obama and ask her supporters to follow suit. To see if it unfolds as the Obama campaign hopes – free of acrimony – tune in on Wednesday, Aug. 27

Officials expected to announce decision later Thursday.

Woman to Woman, Online

8/13/08
NY Times: Sites aimed primarily at women, from "mommy blogs" to makeup and fashion sites, grew 35 percent last year - faster than every other category on the Web except politics, according to comScore, an Internet traffic measurement company. Women's sites had 84 million visitors in July, 27 percent more than the same month last year, comScore said. To read more, please click on the title of this article.

Egypt: Female Film Director Faces Possible Flogging At Behest of Lawyer Affiliated With National Democratic Party

From the Women's Media Center
Arabic Network for Human Rights Information (Cairo)

PRESS RELEASE
13 August 2008
Posted to the web 14 August 2008

One of the lawyers affiliated with the Egyptian National Democratic Party (NDP) who is a specialist in "Hesba" cases (which involve alleged insults to God, which are deemed harmful to Islamic society) against authors and artists has demanded the flogging of an Egyptian female movie director. He sent an official warning to the Sheikh of Azhar demanding the execution of his request, said ANHRI on 13 August 2008. More...

The Hesba lawyer gave the Sheikh of Azhar eight days to execute the flogging of the prominent Egyptian female movie director, Enas El-Dighaidy, whom he said should receive eighty lashes because of a movie she directed, called "Diaries of a Teenager Girl", which he claims defames Egypt.

It is worth mentioning that this same Hesba lawyer demanded, in one of his previous court cases, the punishment of an Egyptian actress because she refrained from wearing a veil. He was also one of the lawyers who demanded that Ibrahim Eissa, chief editor of "Al-Dustour" newspaper, be put on trial in the case known as "the President's Health case".

ANHRI notes that Hesba has become a nightmare for authors and artists. Such Hesba cases could not have increased without the government's blessing and its cooperation with the Hesba lawyers. Such an attitude by the government allows for a heavy pressure to be exerted on brave journalists and bloggers, who are still paying a high price for allowing us to enjoy the benefits of a small margin of freedom of expression.

The Freedom of Expression Legal Aid Unit of ANHRI is strongly supporting El-Dighaidy and all Egyptian artists and creators and calls on all active entities and civil society organisations to stand against in both the religious and political spheres to the phenomenon of Hesba, whether these cases are filed by fame-seekers or instigated by the Egyptian government.

ANHRI also calls on all serious media institutions to ignore those Hesba lawyers and not to publish their names in order to avoid making false stars out of them and to minimise their chances of exercising more influence on the NDP, as well as to assure the right of every journalist or author to express him or herself, regardless of whether one agrees or not with their views.

For further information on the Eissa (Issa) case, see: http://www.ifex.org/en/content/view/full/93126

Relevant Links: North AfricaEgypt Human Rights Legal and Judicial Affairs Women and Gender

Women's group wants Chris Matthews fired

Calling his treatment of women on his cable TV show sexist, the New Agenda urges MSNBC to not renew his contract.
August 14, 2008

A new women's organization is setting out to get Chris Matthews fired from his job on MSNBC, calling his treatment of women on his cable TV show sexist.

The nonpartisan group, called the New Agenda, held its first meeting this week and established as one of several goals getting Matthews yanked from his long-running show, "Hardball with Chris Matthews." More...

Matthews' contract is up for renewal next year. His plans are unclear. But in Pennsylvania, his home state, some Democrats have long hoped that Matthews -- who was an aide in Washington to several Democratic lawmakers and a presidential speechwriter in the Carter administration -- would abandon TV and run for the Senate in 2010 against the Republican incumbent, Arlen Specter.

The 30-some women who attended the inaugural New Agenda meeting in New York included representatives of women's groups from around the country along with supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's now-defunct presidential campaign, according to one of the founders.

Amy Siskind of Westchester, N.Y., a founder and Clinton supporter, said the group was urging that Matthews' contract not be renewed because "the kind of language he uses and the kind of behavior he exhibits in the public domain toward women objectifies them and leads to bad things for our society and to domestic violence."

An MSNBC spokeswoman, Alana Russo, said Wednesday that Matthews was out sick and not available for comment.

Clinton loyalists were unhappy with Matthews' coverage of the race for the Democratic nomination and what they see as a pattern of demeaning behavior to women.

In 2007, Matthews was talking on the air with Erin Burnett, a CNBC business news anchor, when he asked her to lean into the camera. "Come in closer -- really close," he told a flustered Burnett. He then laughed and said: "Just kidding. You look great. . . . You're a knockout."

In January, Matthews apologized on the air for a comment he had made about Clinton's political achievements. He said she owed her Senate seat and presidential bid to the fact that her husband had "messed around."

Siskind would not reveal what tactics the group would use to get Matthews off the air. She likened the organization to the Navy Seals, saying their methods would be covert.

--

Peter Nicholas

Clinton supporters debate merits of roll call vote

By Kathy Kiely, USA TODAY

It may be Barack Obama's party, but that may not prevent an emotional show of support for former rival Hillary Rodham Clinton at the Democratic National Convention later this month.

Aides to Obama, who will formally accept the Democratic nomination in Denver on Aug. 28, are girding for the possibility that Clinton's backers will force a roll call vote that would demonstrate the extent of support for the New York senator. More...

"There's no perfect solution for anybody," Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign manager, told USA TODAY this week. But he expressed confidence Democrats will pull together no matter what the outcome. "I think we will end up being just fine roll call or no roll call."

DEMOCRATS: Read rules for '08 convention (pdf file)

Clinton picked up about 18 million votes and nearly 1,900 delegates in her primary battle against Obama. He got more than 2,250 delegates — more than necessary to clinch. She conceded to the Illinois senator June 7 and threw her support behind him, but hasn't ruled out lending her name to an effort that some ardent supporters are mounting to put her name in nomination at the four-day convention that begins Aug. 25.

At a California fundraiser last month, Clinton suggested that a roll call would be "a catharsis" for her supporters. "I happen to believe that we will come out stronger if people feel their voices were heard and their views were respected," she told a group of Democrats in Los Altos Hills.

"I think it would be excellent," said Lorraine Hariton, who hosted the gathering.

Others are opposed. "I think it would be very divisive," said Santa Clara County Assessor Larry Stone, who also attended the fundraiser. Stone, who said he backed Clinton in the primaries, argued that a convention tally of her support would only help the cause of the presumptive Republican nominee. "John McCain would love it," he said.

At issue is whether a floor vote on the nomination would help heal or further open wounds left by a bruising primary campaign between two history-making candidates. Obama is the first African American to win a major party nomination for the presidency; Clinton is the first woman to have vied seriously for the same post.

To recognize Clinton's accomplishment, convention organizers have given her a prime-time slot to address the convention on Aug. 26 — 88 years after the 19th Amendment took effect and gave women the right to vote.

Some of Clinton's supporters are circulating a petition to put her name in nomination. Democratic Party rules require the signatures of 300 delegates, with no more than 50 coming from a single state. The rules also require that the candidate sign the petition. Whether Clinton will do so is now under negotiation with Obama.

"She's in a dicey position," Hildebrand said. "She's got a lot of people who worked incredibly hard for her, who dedicated their lives to her mission, her candidacy and who are very passionate about this."

One of those supporters is Allida Black, a George Washington University historian who said she cashed in her retirement savings to finance travel to 14 states for Clinton. Black, a Clinton delegate from Virginia, is helping circulate the nominating petition.

"This is not a spite Obama effort," she said. "This is for Hillary to get the respect her campaign merits."

Another Clinton delegate, Rosina Rubin of New York, argued that in acknowledging Clinton's supporters, the Democratic convention would also be paying tribute to an important constituency. "Her achievement this year is really a culmination of everything women in politics have done in this country since before we had the right to vote," Rubin said.

Rove: Colorado, Mi, Ohio, and & Virginia Key States

I See Four Key Battleground States
By KARL ROVE
August 14, 2008; Page A11

Presidential campaigns ultimately come down to who can win 270 Electoral College votes. With most states favoring one candidate or the other, this year's contest could come down to a few battleground states.

Based on visits this past week with party leaders and old pros, it's clear that Barack Obama will focus on Colorado and Virginia. Both have large concentrations of white, college-educated voters with whom Mr. Obama is popular. And both have seen Democrats surge recently.

Of the two, Mr. Obama is best positioned to pick up Colorado's nine electoral votes. Denver hosts the Democratic convention at the end of this month. And a quartet of local millionaires (mini-George Soroses) have spent lavishly to boost Democrats. They have succeeded at shrinking the Republican advantage among registered voters. The GOP now has just 68,507 more voters on the rolls in Colorado than Democrats, down from a 176,572 edge four years ago. More...

Democrats win the state when they hold down GOP margins in rural districts, and appeal to swing women voters in Larimer County and the Denver suburbs. Mr. Obama lacks rural credentials, but he might make inroads in the suburbs.

Sen. McCain's independence will help him in Colorado. Also, there will be two anti-union initiatives on the ballot this fall that could energize conservatives. But he needs to run up votes in the GOP strongholds of El Paso (Colorado Springs), Douglas (south of Denver), Weld (Eastern Plains) and Mesa (Western Slope) counties, while appealing to Democratic and independent Hispanics and Catholics.

The last time Virginia (13 electoral votes) went for a Democratic presidential candidate was 1964. In 2004, the GOP's margin was eight points. That makes Virginia an uphill climb for Mr. Obama, but not out of reach. He's focused on increasing African-American voters in Hampton Roads (in the southeastern corner of the state), Richmond and Petersburg, and on deepening his strength in Northern Virginia, where Fairfax was one of only 60 counties in America to flip from Republican in '00 to Democrat in '04.

But Mr. McCain's maverick image allows him to compete in Northern Virginia, where he's buying expensive D.C. TV ads. He also needs to do well in rural Virginia and the Richmond suburbs. Hampton Roads is home to nearly twice as many veterans as the national average, so Mr. McCain should be able to do well there.

If Mr. McCain lost Colorado and Virginia, he would likely have 264 electoral votes (assuming he carried the other states President Bush won in 2004). To win, he would have to pick up a state Democrats are counting on winning, such as Michigan.

With 17 electoral votes, Michigan is an attractive target. But it is also a complicated state. The Democratic machine is in near meltdown in Detroit, where the city's mayor is fighting felony charges stemming from an alleged cover-up of a sex scandal (he recently spent a night in jail). The party is also hurt by adverse reactions to Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm's $1.5 billion tax increase last year, which dampened economic growth.

Mr. McCain needs Reagan Democrats and independents in eastern Michigan. These working class, culturally conservative, mostly Catholic voters are how the GOP elected an attorney general, a secretary of state and a state Senate majority. These voters care about jobs and know manufacturing runs on affordable energy. They will respond to Mr. McCain's call for domestic drilling and expanded nuclear power.

Mr. McCain also needs to focus on "soft" Republicans, particularly in the Detroit suburbs. His renegade reputation will help him with socially liberal independents and Republicans. But Mr. Obama's change message will help him in western Michigan where the socially conscious, historically Republican Dutch voters have antiwar tendencies.

Then there is Ohio. Ground zero in '04, its 20 electoral votes will be hotly contested again this year. No Republican has won the White House without winning the Buckeye State.

How can Mr. McCain take Ohio? He can appeal to swing voters in the northeastern part of the state. Cuyahoga, Summit and Lucas counties and the Mahoning Valley are full of culturally conservative, working-class voters. In addition, Mr. Obama was wiped out in the primary among the blue-collar Reagan Democrats of southeastern Ohio. Outside of the university town of Athens, he won less than 30% of the vote in southeastern Ohio. This Appalachian region remains bad turf for him.

Mr. McCain will need to do well with suburban independents in the counties surrounding Columbus to balance heavy African-American turnout. He will also need to run strong in the Cincinnati suburbs in the southwest, and in rural and small-town counties.

Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin. But Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio are likely to be the center of the action. To win, Mr. Obama needs to pick up 18 electoral votes more than John Kerry received, meaning Mr. Obama must carry Colorado or Virginia and add another small state to his column. If Mr. McCain carries Michigan as well as Ohio, it would make Mr. Obama's Electoral College math very difficult. And if Mr. McCain can limit GOP losses to one or two small states from those won by the GOP in 2004, he'll be America's 44th president.

Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video commentary, on Opinion Journal.